Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
