A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
